772. Mathematical Modeling of Pertussis Cocooning: The Effect of Prenatal Vaccination on Disease Dynamics
Session: Poster Abstract Session: Vaccines: Pediatric
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Room: Poster Hall
Background: Pertussis is a highly contagious upper respiratory infection that continues to be a major public health concern in the United States. As the only vaccine-preventable disease whose incidence is increasing, pertussis has gained renewed attention by public health entities. Recently, the CDC has begun recommending pertussis booster vaccines (Tdap) during the third trimester of pregnancy to decrease disease burden among the most vulnerable group of individuals: neonates/infants.

Methods: To test the efficacy of this prevention strategy, we develop a deterministic mathematical model that allows us to establish the effect maternal prenatal vaccination has on neonatal/infant pertussis incidence.

Results: Results indicate that neonatal/infant pertussis cases could decrease by as much as 97% with universal vaccine uptake during pregnancy. Ninety-three percent of this decrease can be attributed to passive immunity, and 7% can be attributed to indirect protection of neonates/infants by maternal vaccination itself. Recent estimates of prenatal Tdap uptake range from 61-82%; thus, more conservative estimates show that infection rates may drop 77-89% among neonates/infants.

Conclusion: Our mathematical model lends credibility to the efficacy of Tdap booster vaccination during pregnancy, highlighting the significance of passive immunity and reinforcing the importance of prenatal vaccination on pertussis disease dynamics. Public health entities may benefit from implementing new strategies aimed at increasing vaccine uptake during pregnancy, which may ultimately decrease pertussis-related morbidity and mortality among the most vulnerable individuals.

Zachary Gillooly, MD, Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, James Cheek, MD, MPH, Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM and Helen Wearing, PhD, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM


Z. Gillooly, None

J. Cheek, None

H. Wearing, None

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