738. Evaluation of Strategies for Improving Vaccination Coverage among Adults in the US: Can We Build Predictive Models?
Session: Poster Abstract Session: Vaccines: Improving Delivery
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Room: Poster Hall
Background: Based on current trends, Healthy People 2020 immunization goals for adult vaccination may not be attainable. This study was undertaken to assess the feasibility of developing a model to evaluate how different strategies might improve uptake of influenza, pneumococcal, zoster, hepatitis B and pertussis vaccines in adults in the US.

Methods: The feasibility assessment was based on a targeted review of publicly available data sources from 1995-2015 that could be used to build a predictive model of the determinants of adult vaccine coverage levels, with particular focus on population and healthcare interventions that could improve coverage. The ultimate goal would be to project vaccine coverage among US adults based on interventions that may increase vaccine coverage, target populations for these interventions, and anticipated impact on coverage.

Results: Relevant interventions evaluated within the context of a published study are summarized in Figure 1. One study reported modest increase in vaccine coverage after a TV and newspaper advertisement campaign. Increased convenience positively impacted vaccine coverage across publications. Studies that evaluated the impact of patient education on vaccine coverage had inconsistent findings, but provider education was consistently associated with increased vaccine coverage. Use of patient reminder may help increase vaccine uptake particularly in high-barrier patients, while use of provider reminder can lead to significantly higher vaccine coverage. Implementation of standard procedures also consistently led to notable improvement in adult vaccine uptake. However, the actual impact of interventions on vaccine coverage is difficult to estimate, as is the size of population that might be targeted by these various interventions, both of which are needed to quantify the potential for increasing adult coverage. Extrapolating from present studies is challenging due to underlying design (lack of comparison arm, sample size, setting, etc.) and variability in outcomes.

Conclusion: While a predictive model of adult vaccination coverage would be an important public health tool, estimating and calibrating such a model at present is challenging. In order to build reliable forecasting tools, more robust studies are needed to quantify effectiveness of interventions.

Cosmina Hogea, PhD, GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines, Philadelphia, PA, Derek Weycker, PhD, Policy Analysis Inc. (PAI), Brookline, MA, Gerry Oster, Ph.D., Policy Analysis Inc., Brookline, MA and Girishanthy Krishnarajah, Ph.D., CSL Behring, New Hope, PA


C. Hogea, GSK Vaccines: Employee and Shareholder , Salary and Stocks

D. Weycker, GSK: Research Contractor , Research support

G. Oster, GSK: Research Contractor , Research support

G. Krishnarajah, GSK: Former employee , Salary and Stocks
CSL Behring: Employee , Salary and Stocks

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