Methods: The data consists of one year of flu surveillance from patients presenting with influenza-like-illness at clinics in Cameroon. Samples underwent RT-PCR influenza screening. Analysis were performed in Berkeley Madonna. We developed Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE)s under the SEIR compartmental model and calculated R0. We estimated the proportion of cases the clinics observed to make inferences to the catchment population of these health facilities. We developed another set of ODEs to introduce vaccination using a pulse function with a 50% efficacy and 45% vaccination coverage.
Results: We observed 82.9% reduction in flu cases by introducing vaccination at 45% coverage (U.S average). Cameroon would likely achieve reduced coverage. Therefore, we examined introducing vaccination with 10% coverage, and observed that flu cases were cut by over one third.
Conclusion: This analysis demonstrates that introducing vaccination in Cameroon clinics would reduce influenza cases substantially even with only a small proportion of the population vaccinated. Flu vaccination campaigns should be strongly considered as they can reduce case count which may reduce the likelihood of transmitting flu to those who are at risk the most severe outcomes.
K. Saylors, None
M. LeBreton, None
V. Meguia, None
C. Djoko, None
R. Njouom, None