687. Modeling the impact of introduction of influenza vaccination on ILI cumulative case count in Cameroon
Session: Poster Abstract Session: Public Health: Epidemiology and Outbreaks
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Room: S Poster Hall
Posters
  • Ubald_Poster_Influenza_diamension_Final.pdf (753.1 kB)
  • Background: Influenza illness can range from mild to severe, with serious outcomes occurring in children and the elderly. Flu has been studied extensively in geographies where vaccine is often plentiful. The burden of influenza is not well known in tropical regions where vaccine coverage is scant. Our study examines the impact of introducing flu vaccination on cumulative incidence in a Cameroonian population with less than 0.2% influenza vaccine utilization

    Methods: The data consists of one year of flu surveillance from patients presenting with influenza-like-illness at clinics in Cameroon. Samples underwent RT-PCR influenza screening. Analysis were performed in Berkeley Madonna. We developed Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE)s under the SEIR compartmental model and calculated R0. We estimated the proportion of cases the clinics observed to make inferences to the catchment population of these health facilities. We developed another set of ODEs to introduce vaccination using a pulse function with a 50% efficacy and 45% vaccination coverage.

    Results: We observed 82.9% reduction in flu cases by introducing vaccination at 45% coverage (U.S average). Cameroon would likely achieve reduced coverage. Therefore, we examined introducing vaccination with 10% coverage, and observed that flu cases were cut by over one third.

    Conclusion: This analysis demonstrates that introducing vaccination in Cameroon clinics would reduce influenza cases substantially even with only a small proportion of the population vaccinated. Flu vaccination campaigns should be strongly considered as they can reduce case count which may reduce the likelihood of transmitting flu to those who are at risk the most severe outcomes.

    Ubald Tamoufe, MPH, MS1, Nancy Ortiz, MPH, PhD candidate2, Karen Saylors, PhD2, Matt LeBreton, MS3, Viviane Meguia, MS1, Cyrille Djoko, PhD1 and Richard Njouom, PhD4, (1)Metabiota Cameroon, Yaoundé, Cameroon, (2)Metabiota, San Francisco, CA, (3)Mosaic, Yaoundé, Cameroon, (4)Centre Pasteur, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Disclosures:

    U. Tamoufe, None

    N. Ortiz, None

    K. Saylors, None

    M. LeBreton, None

    V. Meguia, None

    C. Djoko, None

    R. Njouom, None

    Findings in the abstracts are embargoed until 12:01 a.m. PDT, Wednesday Oct. 3rd with the exception of research findings presented at the IDWeek press conferences.